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Canadian government officials and experts have roundly dismissed his comments as a bit of trolling at Canada’s expense. But even if he were serious, it would be far more difficult to join the two countries than he might realize.

What Canada must do to join the U.S.

The most likely option to unite the two countries is through legal and constitutional means. But there’s a fundamental issue here — Canada is a constitutional monarchy while the U.S. is a republic.

“If you want to change from a monarchical to a republican system, you must deal with the office of the King,” noted Gregory Tardi, formerly legal counsel to the House of Commons and Elections Canada. “And that brings you straight into .”

This stipulates that, in order to amend the Constitution and dissolve the union, the Canadian Senate, House of Commons and every single provincial legislature must unanimously agree with the proposal.

“Frankly, I don’t see that happening,” he said, especially given how opposed most Canadians are to secession.  found just 13 per cent of Canadians were on board with the idea, while 82 per cent were opposed.

That’s not to mention the inevitable conflict with Indigenous nations and Quebec such an action would incite, Adam Chapnick, a professor of defense studies at the Canadian Forces College, added.

“All of this would take months, if not years, to negotiate, and it is not the priority of the United States government,” Chapnick said. “So I don’t think this is serious. I think this is trolling more than anything else.”

What would it take on the U.S. side?

Obviously, the U.S. must first be willing to absorb Canada. And while there’s a process outlined in the U.S. constitution for adding new states, only congress has the ability to authorize such a decision.

A vote for admission of a new state would need to pass through both chambers of Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate) and would need a supermajority of 60 votes to get through the Senate, Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at Western University, explained.

However, new states are usually territories of the U.S. first — like in Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands — where residents are U.S. citizens but have not been granted statehood and the perks that come with it. The topic of statehood has dominated Puerto Rico’s political landscape for decades.

Even if Canada, or lets say even a portion of Canada, were to want to join the U.S., and the U.S. Congress was open to the possibility of statehood, it’s unlikely to say the least that the Canadian government would allow a secession of its territory or citizens, Lebo explained. 

And statehood has been a bloody process in the past. The Mexican American War kicked off after the U.S. annexed Texas from Mexico, resulting in a four-year conflict that left tens of thousands dead.

“I can’t think of a process for (Canadian statehood) short of a war,” Lebo said. “If Canadians don’t want to be part of the US — and a vast majority do not — then I don’t know what other way it can happen.”

What other options exist?

Tardi outlined eight possible scenarios should the unlikely scenario of the two nations merging become reality, from closer economic ties to all-out invasion.

The most likely is a variation of the current status quo, but this time with deeper economic ties between the two countries and a “great deal of imbalance in favour of the United States,” he explained.

Second is an economic union based on the current Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, Tardi continued, which could eventually evolve into something like the European Union with agreements going beyond pure economics and trade.

Next is a variation of number two, where instead of an overall Canada-U.S. agreement, specific regions of Canada and the U.S. with similar interests develop their own co-operation schemes.

Fourth is the voluntary merger of both countries into a new sovereign country. “Contrary to what people south of the border think, Canada would not become the 51st state,” he said. “There would be 63 states, because Canada, in fact, comprises (13) provinces and territories. Nobody in the U.S. seems to think of that.”

Number five is a voluntary merger of some provinces but not all with the U.S. In order for even a single province to leave, however, the Senate, House of Commons and every single provincial legislature must all agree to the move.

Sixth is the “highly unlikely” incorporation of Canada into the U.S. at the will of the Americans. Even more unlikely is scenario seven, the incorporation of the U.S. into Canada.

“The last option is just a straight out American invasion, by force of arms,” Tardi said — another extremely improbable scenario.

Why is Trump doing this?

Given how unlikely all of these options are, Lebo and Chapnick say Trump’s repeated comments are merely gaffes at Canada’s expense.

“He’s trolling Justin Trudeau because he thinks it’s funny and cute and he wants to be the boss of the playground and get everyone all worried about it,” Lebo said. “But it’s not a realistic threat.”

Tardi has a different perspective. “Despite his love for power, Trump is not really a politician,” he said. “Trump believes, as do many powerful people in the United States, that politics can and should be conducted in the same fashion as business.”

Trump might view his taunts as a strategic manoeuvre at the bargaining table, another chip to play in his tariff and border security negotiations with Canada.

“But honestly, I don’t think he has thought this through and I don’t think this is serious,” Tardi continued. “It’s just an opportunistic line of argumentation on his part.”