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For the post-secondary sector, particularly colleges — that in the face of budgetary pressures and fewer homegrown applicants had come to heavily rely on international tuition — the impact of a cap was swift and considerable.

At the same time, the the new rules would bring to its institutions despite a history of responsible and modest international growth. The words were prophetic: Last week, York University announced it was suspending new admissions to 18 majors this fall.

Against this backdrop of upheaval, the pc28����Star surveyed all 48 of the province’s publicly funded colleges and universities.

Two-thirds responded, many describing the impact of the study permit changes as significant to severe, compounding more than a decade of government underfunding, rising operational costs and a domestic tuition freeze.

The cumulative effect has resulted in “sector-wide financial stress,” said a Carleton University spokesperson, noting that enrolment of first-year international students there has dropped by 55 per cent and incoming graduate students by 35.

The Ottawa school also now faces a deficit “significantly higher” than expected — a familiar refrain province-wide where these policy changes are projected to cost the sector billions.

Despite , it has largely taken a backseat to tariffs, housing and health care. But the Star’s survey — a snapshot at the end of a tumultuous 2024 — reveals a sector under considerable strain with growing concern over what’s to come.

Who responded (and who didn’t)

Nearly all Ontario universities responded to the survey.

Université de l’Ontario français — which saw the  — said it would not participate. The University of Windsor, which  partly affected by a , did not respond at all; nor did which is four years into recovery after filing for creditor protection in 2021.

Of Ontario 24 public colleges, more than half (15) answered the survey. Those that did not include Conestoga, which issued the most study permits in Canada in 2023, , , Durham, La Cité, , , �����Ի���Seneca, most of which have already announced cost-cutting measures.

We’re not all the same

When Immigration Minister Marc Miller , reducing new ones by 35 per cent, he blamed “bad actors” for damaging the integrity of the system. “Some institutions have significantly increased their intakes to drive revenues, and more students have been arriving in Canada without the proper supports they need to succeed,” he said.

Stories of unscrupulous recruiters, housing woes and greed fueled the narrative. In Ontario, blame was directed at colleges where international enrolment was mostly well north of 30 per cent of the student body and in some cases as high as 85 per cent, .

The province followed up with a moratorium on public-private college partnerships, which had been responsible for some of the fastest international growth in recent years. And last fall, among other new rules, specific fields of study were identified and tied to eligibility for post-graduate work permits��(�ʳҰ±�).

The restrictions, demonstrated a bias.

“These changes unfairly favour universities, with university degrees not subject to the same PGWP-eligibility criteria as career-focused college credentials,” Niagara College spokesperson Mike Wales said in response to the Star’s survey.

St. Lawrence president Glenn Vollebregt, who noted his college had been “wrongly associated with private colleges who do not offer the same wrap-around services,” said “the disparate way the federal government has treated post-secondary education in Ontario, by favouring universities and degree programs, is going to have long-term, negative impacts on regional labour markets … (and) it also completely discounts the value and importance of practical, community-based education.”

Meanwhile, universities, in their responses, distanced themselves from fault. “Universities have been responsible actors when it comes to supporting international students,” said the University of Waterloo; “While other parts of the postsecondary sector have grown their international student numbers exponentially, York has taken an informed, responsible approach,” said a York spokesperson.

at nearly all Ontario universities, with the exception of Algoma, Hearst and Université de l’Ontario français, where students from elsewhere outnumber Canadians. 

The University of pc28����has, at 30 per cent, an international student population in line with other top-ranked global research institutions. “At U of T, we enroll only as many international students as we can support, leading to slow measured growth,” said Joseph Wong, U of T’s vice-president, international, who called on Ottawa to “prioritize study permit processing for high-calibre international students admitted to responsible institutions.”

“Our educational institutions, our communities and our economy benefit when talented students choose to study in Canada at universities that support them throughout their academic journey.”

Enrolment and demand

To gauge the impact of the policy changes, the Star asked for the number of first-year international undergraduates enrolled last September compared to the previous fall before the cap was introduced.

Of the 17 universities that provided that data, all reported a drop, with Carleton  experiencing the steepest decrease. Waterloo reported a decline of 33 per cent; Ottawa 30; Hearst 28; Queen’s 20, McMaster 18; Western 15; Lakehead 11 and U of T nearly 6 per cent.

Other than Boréal (17 per cent increase), all colleges that were transparent about their enrolment data welcomed fewer first-year international students, with Niagara (53 per cent), Fleming (45 per cent); Fanshawe (39 per cent) and Northern (39 per cent) taking some of the bigger hits.

Collège Boréal, which operates in 30 communities, was also an outlier when it came to applicants.

Despite fewer people even bothering to apply to study in Canada (the survey found some institutions received 20 per cent fewer international applicants), Boréal saw a 16 per cent increase.

But even as may benefit French-language schools, Boréal says it still has concerns over the new rules around eligible programs for post-graduate work permits.

“Going forward, this could have an impact on Boréal’s attractiveness to international students,” said Brian Vaillancourt, vice-president, business development.

In fact, the decline in applicants and enrolment captured in the survey is evidence that  has been damaged. 

“It demonstrates the erosion of interest in coming to Canada among global academic talent, impacting universities and other responsible post-secondary institutions was well as those that are less scrupulous,” said Wong. “The result further imperils education for all students.”

Tell us about your PALs

To staunch and control the flow of international students, the federal government now requires most new study permit applications to be accompanied by a provincial attestation letter, or PAL. A PAL is proof that a student has an offer from a designated learning institution and will be counted in the allocation of permits within the national cap.

It is up to the province to determine how many PALs each institution receives.  — in 2024, it was 141,000 approved study permits, with nearly all (96 per cent) going to public post-secondary institutions and a majority to the college sector. The province indicated all universities except Algoma and 11 of 24 colleges (with Conestoga seeing the largest decline) would be able to lodge the same number of applications as in 2023.

But the actual distribution of PALs has been a matter of much speculation. The lack of transparency has left observers wondering about the criteria and rationale for institutions’ numbers.

The Star asked each school for their 2024 allocation.

Some would not divulge the figure, explaining they had been directed by the Ontario government not to disclose the information.

But others shared what had been made available: Algoma received 3,038; Queen’s, 749; Waterloo, 1,212; York, 5,032; U of T, 6,256; Fanshawe, 16,752.

In some cases, institutions shared only the percentage of PALs they distributed — an indication that the admission offers they made went to students who were qualified and committed (some institutions required a substantial deposit) and whose application for a study permit was neither rejected nor delayed.

As of early December, McMaster touted it had used 96 per cent of its PALs, noting it was one of only three Ontario universities to have distributed at least 90 per cent of allocated letters. Queen’s said told the Star it had used 90 per cent and U of T said it expected to use all its PALs. Meanwhile, York issued only 69 per cent of its PALs and Waterloo 64 per cent.

The concern was whether institutions would be penalized for not distributing their entire allotment. The province recently said schools will be given the same number of applications they used in 2024 and if half are still unused by June, 20 per cent will be reallocated to other schools to avoid spots going unfilled.

Another new change for 2025 is also worrying universities: master’s and doctoral programs will also be counted under this year’s cap.

“This decision threatens our ability to attract the best graduate students to our country ,” Waterloo warned.

Ontario’s allocated number of international applications this year has dropped by 23 per cent, although some have been reserved for grad programs. In total, 116,740 study permits are expected to be approved, of which 21,841 would go to graduate students.

Drastic measures

A handful of schools noted they’ve been able to navigate the changes without much disruption. pc28����Metropolitan University, whose international enrolment is less than 10 per cent, described the impact as low but noted a drop in international interest in studying in Ontario is adding to existing funding challenges across the sector.

Still, for the most part, schools have either had to take action or were anticipating a tough year ahead. Here’s just a snapshot:

• Confederation has suspended seven programs this winter term and six out of eight programs for the summer term. It paused all capital projects.

• Lambton College is projecting a deficit for the first time in more than 20 years.

• At Hearst, all undergrad programs have been affected and adjusted; management and business administration programs were suspended on one campus.

• George Brown has halted intake for programs in the spring and fall terms.

• Waterloo implemented a full hiring freeze last November.

• Fleming has cancelled moving forward with an approved residence.

• Georgian provided notice to 23 employees that their roles have been affected, and 123 positions have been eliminated through vacancy management.

• Mohawk has suspended 16 programs for 2025. Two were directly related to international enrolment and for 10 it was a contributing factor.