The Ford government’s plan to remove bike lanes might not ease Toronto’s congestion — and may make the roads more dangerous — according to the provincial government’s own internal documents.
The heavily redacted documents — including confidential cabinet memos, briefings prepared by Ministry of Transportation staff and a consultant’s white paper on the bike lane removals —were filed in court Tuesday as part ofa hearing on whether to grant a temporary injunctionto stop the removal of the bike lanes from Bloor Street, Yonge Street and University Avenue until a Charter challenge of the move is heard on April 16.
The installation of bike lanes since COVID-19 has become the subject of fierce debate in a city struggling with record levels of congestion. The protected bike lanes along Bloor Street West, in particular, initially sparked concerns from pc28Fire Services about the possible effect on emergency response times.However, more recent city data shows emergency response times improved in the ward that takes in Bloor West.
The bike lanes have led to dozens of Etobicoke businesses suing the city, staff and a local councillor for $10 million over what they say is a loss of business due to increased congestion caused by the lanes.
The Ford government passed Bill 212, the Reducing Gridlock, Saving You Time Act in November, empowering the province to remove the Bloor, University and Yonge bike lanes, with the rationale that the road space dedicated to cyclists was contributing to Toronto’s congestion. The government said cyclists should insteadbe diverted to “secondary roads.”
A confidential cabinet office committee briefing note that is part of Tuesday’s court filing and is dated Sept. 9 — weeks before the government’s plans to restrict bike laneswas first reported on by media — warns, “There is a medium risk that the proposed change will not achieve the desired outcomes, given that current data and research does not confirm that removing bike lanes that occupy a lane of traffic would significantly alleviate congestion.”
That briefing note also warns that the province’s bike lane bill “may not reduce congestion,” citing research from cities such as New York, Washington and Vancouver, that suggest bike lanes can discourage car use and reduce traffic.
A report commissioned by the provincial government from engineering consultancy firm CIMA is also part of the court submissions.
The CIMA report — created in November 2024 and which cost the government more than $15,000 — warns that bike lane removals could increase collisions by more than 54 per cent, might increase the number of bicycles on sidewalks and create lane closures during the bike lane removal process.
Removing bike lanes, the report’s authors say, may increase vehicle capacity on the roads, but “the actual alleviation of congestion may be negligible or short-lived due to other confounding factors or induced demand,” they warned.
That induced demand — which happens when increased road capacity leads to more drivers — might occur as cyclists who use the bike lanes shift back to cars for their commute, crowding the roads for both car-users and transit riders alike.
When asked about the court filings, Harry Godfrey, a spokesperson for Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria said, “Our government has heard loud and clear from residents and businesses: the failed approach of installing bike lanes without a second thought for drivers is not working,” he said.
“These changes ... will bring common sense back to municipal planning and get families out of gridlock.”
Godfrey did not answer questions about why Sarkaria moved forward with the legislation despite internal concerns and whether the government had acted counter to expert advice.
The court documents also show there were concerns about the effects of removing bike lanes on small businesses — a worry echoed publicly bythe Bloor Annex Business Improvement Area.
A briefing note from the MTO dated in August 2024, raised concerns that bike lane removals could lead to “negative impacts on local businesses” due to reduced foot traffic, as “evidence shows that bike lanes have a positive impact on local retail businesses.” That same briefing also notes that “cycling has been shown to have a positive impact on congestion in North American cities,” warning that the proposed restrictions on bike lanes “may not have the desired goal of reducing congestion.”
The province anticipated a backlash to its move to remove bike lanes, documents show, and hoped to counter those concerns by emphasizing its “pro-driver” and “pro-safety” approach.
The province also explored the option of forcing municipalities, including Toronto, to pay for bike lane removals, an option that the August 2024 briefing note warned could elicit a “strong negative reaction” from large cities like pc28and Ottawa.
Cycling advocates have asked for a temporary injunction on the Ford government’s plan to rip out pc28bike lanes.
Cycling advocates have asked for a temporary injunction on the Ford government’s plan to rip out pc28bike lanes.
MTO staff also warned that the removal of city infrastructure may not be viewed as “the best use of taxpayers resources,” and paying for bike lane removals may risk “potential legal action and audit.”
A cabinet document, signed off by Sarkaria and Environment Minister Andrea Khanjin, also noted that bike lane removals might have a negative impact on middle- and low-income Ontarians’ access to “a low-cost transportation mode,” and that overall, requiring municipalities to get provincial approval, would go against the province’s stated goal of reducing red tape.
Internal MTO emails also show when removals of the bike lanes might take place. MTO staff had suggested bike lane removals to begin in late April 2026. Staff noted that they “expect (the MTO) will be asked for options to accelerate the work such that removals are done before the end of 2025.”
Cycle Toronto, along with two cyclists, filed a challenge with the Superior Court in December, arguing the removal of the pc28bike lanes violates their Charter-protected rights to life and security of person. They have argued that removing the bike lanes would not reduce congestion and would only increase collisions for cyclists.
Clarification — March 13, 2025
This file has been updated to include the detail thatrecent city data shows emergency response times improved in the ward that takes in Bloor Street West.
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