The Liberal path to victory didn’t run through the 905— as it has in years past— as the Conservatives managed to gain key seats in the suburban region around Toronto.
But the tight races in the region— with many that weren’t called until late into the night— was more indicative of how divided the country was in the election.
Still, the Liberals managed to secure enough wins in this fast-growing and diverse region of roughly 4 million people, which spans from Durham to Halton and is seen as a bellwether for whose party will hold power.
It was no surprise that all party leaders spent ample time campaigning in the Greater pc28Region, hosting rallies, door knocking and shaking hands with supporters in coffee shops.
Boundary changes reshaped some ridings ahead of this election, forcing some sitting candidates to run in new ridings, with several declared as toss-ups going into election day.
“Usually the 905 determines the government, but what happened is the NDP collapsed … but the 905 will still determine whether or not the Liberals will have a majority or a minority, so it does really come down to the 905,” said Bakir Alazawi, a communications and political strategist, who said specific trends were still too early to call.
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In Durham Region, a cadre of Conservative candidates did well in some newly-created ridings.
One of the most competitive races heading into election night in Durham was in Ajax, where Jennifer McKelvie, a pc28city councillor who served as John Tory’s deputy mayor, was running against well-known radio personality Greg Brady, a new candidate for the Conservatives. McKelvie ended up easily winning the riding by over 5,000 votes.
Jamil Jivani, who had previously won a byelection and was the MP in Durham, won the new riding of Bowmanville—Oshawa North. He’s a former broadcaster and right-wing personality, who has close ties with U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance. It was a tight race with Bridget Girard, but Jivani looked like he was going to take the seat, up by 2,000 votes.
Just south, Rhonda Kirkland was in a tight race with Liberal Isaac Ransom, but looked to hold Oshawa, which has been a reliably blue riding for 20 years.
Jacob Mantle, a former Uxbridge city councillor also took the new riding of York—Durham.
Liberal Juanita Nathan, a Markham city councillor looked to be leading Alicia Vianga in Pickering-Brooklin, which used to be half the riding of Pickering-Uxbridge, held by Liberal Jennifer O’Connell since 2015, who chose not to seek re-election.
Incumbent Ryan Turnbull held his seat in Whitby, defeating Conservative challenger Steven Yamada.
HALTON
After historically being a Conservative riding, Karina Gould has held Burlington since 2015 and was running for her fourth term. Fresh off a failed run at the Liberal leadership, Gould faced Conservative Emily Brown, a math professor and scientific researcher. Gould was winning by 1,500 votes at publication time.
In Burlington North—Milton West, which was formerly the riding of Milton, former Olympian Adam van Koeverden has held the seat since 2021. He faced off in a tight race against I.T. consultant Nadeem Akbar and was projected to keep his seat.
Milton East-Halton Hills South is also a new riding and saw a competitive race between Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen a local lawyer and city councillor facing Conservative candidate Parm Gill, who has previously run federally and represented Milton as a Member of Provincial Parliament from 2018-2024. Gill had a 500 vote lead with 43 of 201 polls reporting.
In the new riding of Oakville-East, Liberal Anita Anand who reconsidered her plans to leave politics, faced off against Conservative candidate Ron Chhinzer, a former police officer. The race was polling as a toss-up, and Anand held a 400 vote lead with 95 or 146 polls reporting.
Engineering entrepreneur Sima Acan is the Liberal candidate in Oakville East, taking on Conservative Tim Crowder, in a tight race. Acan was up by almost 500 votes with 85 of 195 polls reporting
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The Liberals have held off any Conservative candidates in Brampton and Mississauga since 2011, but Brampton showed signs of change as there were several close calls.
Maninder Sidhu is seeking a third term in Brampton East, and faced off against Conservative challenger Bob Dosanjh Singh, an entrepreneur and businessman.
Ruby Sahota has represented Brampton North since 2015 and has served as a cabinet minister. The riding is now Brampton—North Caledon, where she was in a tight race with realtor Amandeep Judge.
Brampton South has also supported Liberal Sonia Sidhu since 2015, and she faced former police officer and businessperson Sukhdeep Kang.
Kamal Khera is running for a fourth term in Brampton West, but at publication time, she was behind in votes toConservative challenger Amarjeet Gill, who previously ran for the Provincial Conservative party in 2011 and 2014.
The Conservatives were hoping to break through in Mississauga-Lakeshore ousting Liberal MP Charles Sousa. He managed to beat Conservative Tom Ellard.
Mississauga-Erin Mills MP Liberal Iqra Khalid held on to her seat over between Conservative Milad Mikael, and NDP’s Ehab Mustafa.
Liberal MP Omar Alghabra’s riding of Mississauga-Centre was open and managed to be held for the Liberals, with rookie Fares Al Soud holding on to the seat over Conservative Muhammad Ishaq.
In Mississauga-Streetsville, longtime city councillor Sue McFadden’s race against Liberal MP Rechie Valdez, an entrepreneur and TV personality elected in 2021, who was leading at publication time.
YORK
Some of the tightest races were expected in York, where the Conservatives had two seats in the previous elections; in Thornhill and King-Vaughan. This time around, they were on trend to snag a few more.
King-Vaughan MP Anna Roberts, managed to hold on to her seat against Liberal Mubarak Ahmed, in a close fought-race where volunteers were out garnering support until the last minute.
In nearby Vaughan-Woodbridge, visited by both party leaders early in the campaign, Liberal incumbent Francesco Sorbara was trailing against Conservative Michael Guglielmin, at publication time.
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill was seen as a toss-up going into the election, but as a must-win for Conservatives trying to make in-roads into the 905. Liberal incumbent Leah Taylor Roy was neck and neck against former Conservative MP Costas Menegakis, who served under a Harper government, at publication time.
The open race in Markham-Unionville was too close to call with a tight race between former pc28deputy police chief Peter Yuen for the Liberals and Conservative Michael Ma.
Markham—Stouffville Liberal incumbent Helena Jaczek, was leading over Niran Jeyanesan, a former police officer who is running for the Conservatives, at publication time.
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