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 found that about 1-in-4 Albertans would vote to leave Canada. Nevertheless, a poll by Nanos Research for the Globe and Mail found that most Canadians across the country (62 per cent) think the threat should be taken seriously or somewhat seriously.

So if the numbers aren’t there why are most people worrying about it?

Perhaps because in Western Canada they have grievances against the federal government. While in the rest of the country the stereotype of Westerners as hotheaded, hopped up cowboys lives on.

Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta, said some people feel this way partly out of frustration with federal Conservatives, who they support, losing election after election. But there are some who are serious.

“The hardcore separatists in Alberta are really part of a global group of folks who are quite frankly tired of losing not just elections, but losing credibility, losing their livelihoods and don’t know quite who or what to blame, but they know something big has to change,” Wesley said.

In his own survey research, Wesley found separatists tend to be older, white and live in rural areas. They often have high school education or sometimes trades education. They are likely to be men who work in industries that are more precarious like oil and gas, Wesley said.

Separatism is a threat that rears its head every few years and then slouches away to its comfy cave.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith knows this only too well. But she is not above using the threat to coerce the federal government into getting what she wants — and rallying her troops. So she has laid out a list of nine items she wants from the federal government — Smith is counting on it to be a Liberal government — which includes “unfettered” access to pipelines north, south, east and west.

Smith has also threatened to offer Albertans a referendum after the election, a sly way of saying that if Albertans are really mad about another Liberal government she might give them the option of staying or leaving.

But again, the numbers simply are not there.

Wesley said in his own research, survey respondents who say they’d vote to separate, often also don’t believe it is a real possibility.

“So it tells us that a large portion of the folks who … would support Alberta separatism are not really serious about it, but rather are expressing frustration and blowing off steam,” Wesley said.

So what is Smith doing puffing up the hopes of those who are separatists?

She wants to continue her fight with the federal government even though her previous bête noir — Justin Trudeau — is no longer running to be prime minister. But she has to appear to be even more demanding, to come up with even more obstacles to a resolution of the conflict. Because by continuing to fight she can ignore the realities of sliding oil prices, tariffs and climate change. 

Smith can carry on her campaign to be the Joan of Arc of Alberta saving us from the indignities of the federal government, which she says has victimized us from Day One.

Most Albertans will vote Conservative in the upcoming election as a way to express their dissatisfaction with the Trudeau/Carney Liberals. But that doesn’t mean they are all separatists, despite what Preston Manning has to say about the growth of secessionist sentiments in the West — not just Alberta but all the western provinces.

Manning and Smith, with her backhanded, wink-wink support for separatists, have got it all wrong. They have to turn around at least another 25 per cent of the vote in Alberta, same in Saskatchewan. Even more in B.C. and Manitoba. 

Is that likely to happen amidst the turmoil of Donald Trump’s tariffs? If anything people will be looking for safety in a team approach by the federal and provincial governments.

Only fools would think now is a good time to strike out on our own.