Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives believed they had weathered the worst of the $8.28-billion Greenbelt land swap scandal.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police had other ideas.
Ford had apologized profusely, cancelled the planned opening up of 7,400 acres of environmentally sensitive property to build housing — and promised sweeping legislation to protect the Greenbelt.
His Tories privately expressed relief that the opposition New Democrats, Liberals and Greens had barely landed a glove on the governing party in the first fortnight of the fall legislative session.
That was despite devastating reports in August from the auditor general and the integrity commissioner that triggered the resignations of two cabinet ministers and two top aides.
“We were surprised they weren’t hitting us harder — the way we were all over (the Liberals) on gas plants,” confided one senior official, referring to the opposition Tories’ tireless barrage of questions at then-premier Dalton McGuinty over the 2011 relocation of two gas-fired power plants.
Indeed, on some days in the past two weeks, Ford appeared visibly perplexed when the NDP peppered him with questions about health care and school buses instead of fixating on the Greenbelt debacle.
Then, on Tuesday — in a lunch-hour move the government learned about from the Star — the premier was blindsided by the announcement from the RCMP.
The Mounties’ Sensitive and International Investigations unit, the branch that probes corruption and political crime, had launched an investigation into “allegations associated to the decision from the province of Ontario to open parts of the Greenbelt for development.”
In a terse statement one hour after the news broke, Ford’s office said the government has “zero tolerance for any wrongdoing” and “will fully co-operate with any investigation.”
“We … expect anyone involved in the decision-making about the Greenbelt lands to have followed the letter of the law,” it emphasized.
While insisting that no one did anything unlawful, internally the Tories are concerned because the governing party no longer controls the narrative of the Greenbelt saga — the Mounties do.
With the next provincial election set for June 2026, Ford’s team is mindful of what a lengthy RCMP investigation and any potential criminal charges could do to its re-election hopes.
“A two-year investigation takes it right into the (election) cycle,” said a Tory, who, like others, spoke confidentially to discuss internal deliberations.
There is also mounting alarm that the auditor general is now looking into minister’s zoning orders — known as MZOs — which the Tories routinely use to rush through development by overriding local planning.
“That could be far worse for the government than the RCMP investigation,” confided another Tory, fearing it could highlight the potentially questionable granting of MZOs to expedite construction.
Until Ford was elected in 2018, they were rarely invoked tools for the provincial government. But in the past five years, the Tories have issued more MZOs than their predecessors did in the previous several decades combined.
But any auditor general’s report into MZOs will be released long before the Mounties complete their criminal probe.
“The spectre of the Mounties delving into the pc28property development industry isn’t going to make many people happy,” warned a fourth Tory.
“This could go on for years.”
Worse for the government, the cloud of a police investigation might loom over everything else it tries to accomplish for the foreseeable future.
That could deflect attention from the massive public-transit projects now under construction, the new hospitals and long-term care homes being announced, and investments in electric-vehicle manufacturing, among other key initiatives.
“And how is all of this going affect the (Highway) 413?” noted a frustrated Tory insider, referring to Ford’s signature campaign promise from his successful June 2022 election — a 60-kilometre freeway between Milton and Vaughan.
“We haven’t even started expropriating the land for that. When we do, who do you think is going to end up owning a lot of that land?” the source said with a sigh, pointing to wealthy Greenbelt land speculators.
More than most, the Tories understand how debilitating a political scandal involving the police can be to a government.
In opposition, they basked in leading the charge against the Liberals over the gas plants debacle, the 2015 Sudbury byelection imbroglio and any number of other minor affairs.
Now, the shoe is on the other foot — and the Mounties are tracking the footsteps.
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