With it becoming increasingly likely that the Blue Jays will be sellers at this year’s trade deadline, the question that needs to be answered is whether they will tear everything down or retool for next season.
Reconfiguring the roster in an attempt to contend next year is the most probable outcome. The Jays went through a full rebuild not that long ago and doing so again would be admitting failure on an entire era of the franchise.
The pricey renovations at Rogers Centre aren’t done. The Jays are highly motivated to keep their average ticket buyers interested to justify the costs. Dollar hot dogs, bobblehead giveaways and cup holders won’t keep this organization propped up on their own, this team needs to win to keep butts in the seats.
That’s why most people in the know are expecting a moderate approach to this year’s deadline. The players under contract beyond this season figure to stay put while deals for pending free agents will be explored to inject some much-needed depth into the organization.
Barring an unexpected turn of events, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette should stick around. That would buy the front office time to try to sign them to long-term extensions, and if those talks fail they could be made available this winter.
In the short term, it’s more realistic that the Jays will explore deals for starter Yusei Kikuchi, catcher Danny Jansen, top setup man Yimi Garcia and designated hitter Justin Turner. All four will hit free agency later this year and it’s only logical that a last-place team would look into trades rather than risk losing them for nothing.
The unfortunate reality facing the Jays is that moving on from anyone besides Turner will make contending next year even harder. Kikuchi has been a crucial piece of the rotation each of the last two seasons; Jansen has proven to be more valuable than backup Alejandro Kirk; and Garcia, when healthy, has been one of the game’s top relievers.
They would have to be replaced and, beyond Kirk, the Jays’ don’t have the pieces to do it internally. That means the club will have to prioritize trades that help in the near future, or pay a lot of money through free agency for their replacements. Either way, it’s not a good spot to be in.
The Jays have tried quick-help sales before. In 2018, they sent lefty J.A. Happ to the New York Yankees for a pair of big leaguers in Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. Drury hit .208 with a .606 on-base-plus-slugging percentage across three seasons while McKinney was waived after batting .230.
The Jays tried a similar approach the following year, sending Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini to the Astros for outfielder Derek Fisher, who lasted all of 56 games before he was shipped off to the Brewers for cash and Paxton Schultz, who is now 26 and has a 5.06 ERA in Buffalo.
If the Jays are serious about contending next year, their best shot might be trying to re-sign their pending free agents and upgrading from there. But doing that would leave little financial flexibility to make the other necessary moves.
The Jays currently have a , down from $246 million this year. On the surface, it seems like that leaves a lot of resources available, but the number changes substantially once arbitration cases are factored in.
There are eight players who will be eligible for arbitration next year, including Guerrero, Kirk, Jordan Romano and Daulton Varsho. Combined, they cost $45 million. Next year, that number will be closer to $60 million if everyone is brought back. Based on the current payroll, that would leave $40-45 million, which might not even be enough to retain the veterans who are set to depart.
Further complicating matters is that the Jays front office faces an uncertain future. It remains to be seen whether general manager Ross Atkins will be allowed to continue in his current role. Teams rarely fire front office executives mid-season, so Atkins likely will stay on through the trade deadline, but what happens later in the year is anyone’s guess.
It’s a confusing time but, after a recent seven-game losing streak buried the Jays even deeper in the standings, all signs point to them eventually selling. Once they do, it’s probable they will target younger players who can help them as early as next season as opposed to low-level lottery tickets with more upside.
Retooling on the fly is a lot easier said than done and yet that seems like that’s the direction the Jays will take. Trade the pending free agents and punt the decisions on Guerrero and Bichette until the off-season when the Jays and the front office has more clarity on its future.
Until then, we wait.
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