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The plan informed the $290 million hosting estimate staff presented to councillors before they voted in April 2022 to accept pc28¹ÙÍøbeing named a World Cup venue, and has not been made public. The Star obtained a copy through a freedom of information request.

Organisports warned that lowering the estimated budget would “put at risk” the host committee’sÌýability to come back for more money if costs went up. It also flagged that any additional expenses would “only be borne by the City of Toronto” because the federal and provincial governments would likely base their contributions on the business plan.Ìý

The city’s decision to reject the consultant’s warnings sheds light on how staff have managed the financial risk posed by Toronto’s plans to co-host the World Cup. Since the business plan was drafted, the estimated bill for the event has ballooned to $380 million, and the city has been saddled with almost half that amount despite its request the federal and provincial governments each pick up a third.Ìý

The city says it wanted the budget trimmed because staff believed they had identified savings in Organisports’ proposal, and were doing their best to control costs. Beth Waldman, Toronto’s interim chief communications officer, said it is staff’s responsibility “to look at consultants’ reports with a critical eye and see if there’s any opportunities … to save the bottom line.”

Coun. Gord Perks said it’s not unusual for staff to disagree with consultants. But the representative for Parkdale-High Park, who is one of the few councillors to have voted against hosting the World Cup, said his colleagues’ “damn-the-torpedoes” approach to pursuing the tournament despite its high costs has “probably influenced city staff’s willingness to accept risk.”Ìý

Perks said the money being spent on the event would be better put toward other city priorities, “but my colleagues and the people they represent get so excited about an opportunity like FIFA that they throw caution to the wind.”Ìý

Organisports is based in Greater Montreal, and served as the lead consultant on Toronto’s World Cup business plan. The company was paidÌý$210,000 for the work. It declined to answer questions for this story.Ìý

The version of the plan obtained by the Star is dated March 23, 2022. At the time, FIFA, soccer’s global governing body, had awarded the tournament to a joint bid from the U.S, Mexico and Canada, but hadn’t announced which cities would stage the games. According to the document, Organisports estimated that if pc28¹ÙÍøwas chosen to host five matches, it would cost about $291 million.Ìý

The figure included about $182 million in operating costs for stadium operations, a fan festival and other expenses, and $109 million for capital work, much of which was related to upgrades to BMO Field.

However, those estimates appear to be lower than the consultant initially projected. According to the business plan, in early March 2022 “the City of pc28¹ÙÍødirected Organisports Consultants to remove” $10.4 million from the projected capital budget and $11.4 million from the operating budget.Ìý

The consultants wrote that theyÌý“strongly disagree with these reductions”Ìý— which related to spending on stadium canopies, security and venue rental fees — because they wouldn’t leave enough money for unforeseen costs that might arise.Ìý

The reportÌýnoted thatÌýsome of Toronto’s obligations under the contract it signed with FIFA remained unclear and might not be known until mid-2023.Ìý

Despite those concerns, that recommended council accept Toronto’s nomination as host city if selected by FIFA, staff estimated the tournament costs at about $290 million, a figure in line with the reduced number in the Organisports plan. Council approved the recommendation in a vote of 21 to 1, and in June 2022 pc28¹ÙÍøwas named one of 16 host venues.Ìý

Weeks later the cost estimate was already out of date:Ìý, largely due to higher than expected inflation.

In February of this year, the projection jumped again to $380 million, which staff attributed to pc28¹ÙÍøbeing awarded a sixth match, “inflationary uncertainty,” and refined estimates for vendors, security and other hosting requirements.

The updated figure is much greater than the initial $45-million estimate staff provided council in 2018, which didn’t include security costs.Ìý

Together, the governments of Canada and Ontario have committed just over half the updated $380 million price tag, or $201 million, leaving city responsible for about $179 million.Ìý

Although one of the stated purposes of the Organisports business plan was to provide information to the senior levels of governments to help determine how much they would put toward the tournament, it’s not clear to what extent Ottawa and Queen’s Park based their contributions on the $290-million estimate the consultant warned was too low.Ìý

A spokesperson for the Ontario Ministry of Sport, which told the city last December it would contribute $97 million, said in an emailed statement that the province determined its contributionÌý“after careful review and consideration of several factors, including the business case shared by Toronto.”

A spokesperson for Canadian Heritage said Ottawa’s $104-million commitment was based on hosting plans and budgets updated in early fall 2023. That was before the city had publicly announced the projected cost had increased to $380 million.

Asked about the city’s directive to Organisports to lower its cost projections, Sharon Bollenbach, who was appointed executive director of Toronto’s World Cup secretariat in 2023, said in a statement to the Star that the firm’s business plan “was one of several inputs that informed” staff’s March 2022 estimate, and was “refined through further analysis, including input from city staff on potential cost savings.”

She didn’t directly answer questions about whether staff had done enough to protect the city from cost overruns, or if they erred by presenting council with an estimate that turned out to be too low. But she saidÌýthe analysis presented to council in March 2022 “reflected the information available at the time.”

The World Cup is considered the world’s most-watched sporting event. City staff working on the event have predicted pc28¹ÙÍøhosting six games for the 104-match tournament will deliver “profound” economic benefits to Toronto, including attractingÌýmore than 200,000 overnight visitors, creating 3,500 jobs, and generating almost $400 million in gross domestic product citywide.