The Blue Jays have a state-of-the-art player development complex, but they appear to lack the top prospects to go along with it.
The facilities in Dunedin, Fla., are the envy of Major League Baseball. Built in 2020 for more than $100 million (U.S.), the complex has all the equipment, amenities and cutting-edge technology a team could want. An area once a source of shame is now one of great pride.
The complex was part of the Jays’ pitch to free agent Shohei Ohtani. The private jet trip to pc28never happened but a similar flight to Florida did, as club officials attempted to woo the two-time MVP. Even though the presentation didn’t work, there were several days when the Jays were convinced it might.
“Have you seen the Dunedin facility?” Orioles general manager Mike Elias during MLB’s winter meetings earlier this month in Nashville. “I’d be showing that off, too.”
Ohtani must have been impressed but, according to reporting out of California, there was another aspect of player development the two-way star prioritized more. Ohtani wasted six years playing for an Angels team that never made the playoffs. With talks centred on a 10-year deal, he wanted to join an organization that had the ability to contend now and well into the future. That made the clubs’ minor-league systems, and their reputation for developing talent, just as important as their current 26-man rosters.
Ohtani liked what the Dodgers had to offer, according to i. They have been to the post-season 11 consecutive times, and they are set up for long-term success with a lot of top prospects. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked their minor-league system sixth or better, with the Jays a distant 25th.
The Jays’ cupboard isn’t entirely bare. Promising left-hander Ricky Tiedemann remains an elite blue-chip prospect and infielder Orelvis Martinez has a chance to become an impact bat. Others such as Davis Schneider and Addison Barger offer promise, but the consensus within the industry suggests the Jays’ system lacks depth and upside, particularly in the upper levels.
That figures to be an issue this winter because, after striking out on Ohtani, the Jays might be forced to do some of their off-season work through trade, which would only further erode the system if they were capable of submitting a competitive offer. Equally concerning is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette become eligible for free agency in just two years.
Naturally, general manager Ross Atkins has a different take about the health of his minor leagues.
“We have the inventory to make a significant trade, there’s no doubt about it,” Atkins said recently. “Our farm system has taken hits over the last three years as we’ve been aggressively trading for players. But we are still in position to add an impact player via trade.”
Atkins isn’t wrong. If Tiedemann is available, the Jays would be in the mix for any big-name player that becomes available. The promising 21-year-old battled injuries this season but he finished with a dominant showing in the Arizona Fall League. Tiedemann might become an ace in the future and the reason he is coveted by teams across the league is the same reason he’ll likely stay put.
If Tiedemann is off limits, the Jays’ trade talks will be more challenging. Martinez, Barger and Schneider have appeal and maybe someone will be willing to give Spencer Horwitz full-time at-bats, but the Jays don’t have much in the way of big-league ready pitching that clubs often covet in higher-end deals.
No. 4 prospect Brandon Barriera is 19 years old with only 20 1/3 innings on his professional resumé. No. 8 Landen Maroudis and No. 9 Juaron Watts-Brown have yet to pitch above rookie ball. No. 10 Yosver Zulueta had a disappointing 4.08 ERA for Buffalo.
The lack of upper-level pitching is why it always seemed far-fetched the Jays would . The Padres wanted pitchers and the Yankees offered up four, including promising right-hander Michael King. A big-league ready arm is what the Rays got in top prospect Ryan Pepiot when they sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers.
It’s not going to be easy for the Jays to come up with the top offer if the White Sox shop Luis Robert Jr. or the Mets decide to move Pete Alonso. A more realistic option would be working out a deal that swaps big-leaguers for big-leaguers or involves taking on salary. That might explain a recent report from Jon Heyman that suggested the Jays had interest in Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich, who is owed $136.5 million through 2028.
Unless they move Tiedemann. Then the options grow considerably.
“There are players in the game that I think would make any player acquirable,” Atkins said when asked if he had any untouchables. “I think there are players that are exceptionally difficult to trade. But there are so many ways to make your team better that I wouldn’t want to put the organization into a box.”
As the Jays search for upgrades, one thing Atkins must keep in mind is that completing a trade now will only make it more difficult to get another one done in the future. With limited prospect capital following deals for José Berríos, Matt Chapman and Daulton Varsho, he’ll have to be picky about which options he seriously pursues.
The Jays’ preferred path this off-season was spending money, not further draining the system of young talent. That still might make happen with someone like Cody Bellinger, Jorge Soler or Chapman, but they won’t be writing a cheque to the sport’s best player.
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