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At the time, I noted that the strength of this alliance would depend on each party’s motivations. I should have added: it also depends on Donald Trump’s feed on Truth Social.

When Trump ranted about tariffs, our “unfair” border, or his fantasy trade deals on Truth Social and from the comfort of Air Force One, Quebecers kept their elbows up — especially younger Francophones, who discovered their inner Canadian patriot.

But recently, Trump’s been busy elsewhere — thanks to his Liberation Day comments, a rogue secretary of defence and his headline-grabbing deportations to El Salvador. He’s mostly gone quiet on Canada, save for the occasional reminder from the indomitable White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt that

That’s nice. But Quebecers need to hear the threats from the horse’s mouth. Otherwise? Not so worrisome.

This likely won’t reshape the campaign overnight — unless Trump decides to post something inflammatory about Canada on his way to Rome. But in Quebec, that silence could mean the difference between a majority and a minority government.

Abacus Data’s latest poll shows the Liberals at 33 per cent, the Bloc close behind at 30 per cent, and the Conservatives at 26 per cent. , “this is the smallest gap we’ve seen in Quebec since the campaign began.”

It’s doubtful that Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet’s debate performance triggered the shift. More likely? Trump’s silence — and the steady drumbeat of background noise, mainly from Quebecor-owned platforms, warning Quebecers not to trade Quebec’s interests for some pan-Canadian ideal. Headlines like, “A vote for Carney is auto-destructive for Quebecers” and “Carney is the ghost politician who ignores Québec” aren’t just clickbait. They create the kind of cognitive dissonance that lingers.

Yes, Canadian flags still wave in Quebec — especially when the Habs are on a run. But the old slogan “Maîtres chez nous” (Masters in our own house) — which both Carney and Poilievre pointedly inserted into their talking points — now echoes with its original force, as the rallying cry of Quebec’s Quiet Revolution.

And while Quebecers are encouraged to buy Canadian, their government reminds them: buy Quebec first. A polite way of saying, “Let’s take care of our own.” And a not-so-subtle reminder that keeping Canada Strong translates into looking after your closest friends.

Once again, Quebecers find themselves “entre l’arbre et l’écorce” — between the tree and the bark. It’s a familiar place. They’re a people of heart and head, never too quick with a yes or no regarding major decisions. Trump’s bluster jolted them off the fence. But now, with his relative silence, they may climb right back up, hedging their bets on Ottawa.

And perhaps Quebecers are relishing the idea of holding the balance of power — again. Quebec voters know how to shape a federal outcome. And if they can nudge Carney into becoming a banker they actually like — less Goldman Sachs and Bank of England, more socially concerned Desjardins — so much the better.

The Bloc’s campaign line, “I choose Québec,” may finally be resonating. And in a tight election, that may be enough to keep the Liberals in check.